10 pip trade #08 - win - 6-2 - win rate 75%

This was a GBPAUD trade. The GBP was looking like a good thing to buy and the AUD was the best thing to sell it against so I did ...  I thought instead of just looking for good strength lines I'd wait for a proper signal and see what happened. So the setup came on the strength lines, and then a signal appeared, so in I went.

Kind of immediately wished i hadn't because the spread was huge and took up half of the 10 pips I had to play with all on it's own !

and it fiddled ... and it faddled ....  then it fiddled some more ...  can hardly call this one a success for finding the momentum push !

But eventually things worked - actually on the 12:45 candle but I missed the screenshot so the latest one on here is the 12:55.

10 pip trade #10 - win - 7-3 - win rate 70%

This one was obvious. After the ADP NFP news the t2 graphs looked like a sock being knitted for an hour or so then some setups formed - I picked the CHF and EUR as currencies to buy, and the AUD and CAD as currencies to sell to pay for them, and set up some charts ready to go based on what was flashing most often on the P4 alerts. A few minutes of chart stalking later a P2 alert came up to sell the AUDCHF and it was all on.

I drew the 10 pip lines on the chart and the trade immediately went the wrong way but then the strength lines took hold and down she went.

The 1st candle after the one I went in on missed the target exit by 0.2 pips, but the next one did the trick.

Thinking about it after that I closed the trade manually as the profit was about 1:1 with the risk, I should really have modified the EA to do this then recomplied it etc but probably not the best idea with an open trade. As it turns out that was almost exactly where it would have been stopped out anyway if I'd just let the stop get trailed down.

Then I recomplied the EA to do 1:1 exits which seemed to upset MT4 a bit because it crashed, when I restarted it the EA took a trade by itself trading the same thing the opposite way which gave almost the whole profit back again.

Oh Cock.

Watching the spread during ADP NFP

Thiis is a series of screenshots taken over the space of about 20 seconds after the ADP NFP news came out, showing how the spread even on the EURUSD shot around.

Before the news hit - hovering around 1.7 pips

3.2 pips

3.2 pips

4.5 pips. Note my CHFJPY trade has just gone out.

and 3 seconds later, back to 1.9 pips

10 pip trade #09 - lose - 6-3 - win rate 66%

This was a CHFJPY trade. I was kiind of distracted in the skype room and didn't see it until everyone started talking about it, so I got in late. I actually traded this one on the dummy account because it was the quickest way to get the entry price locked in.

I drew the 10 pip lines on, then left it to see what would happen while the EA trailed the stop according to the dots.

Not looking the best, the JPY is moving strongly up on the T2 graph and it's killed the trade.

And ... stopped ...   the "real" trade is still going though, the stop for that hasn't come in to 10 pips yet so it carries on.

And out it goes - with the stop trailed up to about 10 pips. It was knocked out by a spike for the ADP NFP news. Sounds like everyone else in the skype group was in this one too :)

10 pip trade #07 - win - 5-2 - win rate 71%

Saw the Euro and the GBP looking nice shapes on the session and T2 (which weren't totally identical, just very close). Had to look at the green and red dots to figure out what I was supposed to be buying and what I was supposed to be selling. This did not appear as a P alert but I was just looking for the momentum launch based on the charts so in I boldly went and 'bought' it.

There was a small upwards shove, about 5 pips worth, then back it came as everything came together on the the T1 graphs. The T2 hadn't flattened nearly as much as this looks, there was a sudden spike down in the NZD (at 10:40pm local time ???) which recalculated the vertical axis. Yes I checked more than one NZD chart, and yes it was definitely the NZD.

Fortunately it all worked out in the end.

If this had been a real trade it would have been stopped out just before the run up, but then if it was a real trade I wouldn't have done it because there was not even a P4 alert for it. 

10 pip trade #06 - win - 4-2 - win rate 66%

Looked like buying the CHF was the order of the day, but what to sell to pay for it ? The CAD was at the bottom of the T2 strength chart and going down nicely but it had only just started doing that, until about 15 mins earlier it had been flatlining. The AUD wasn't as weak as the CAD but it had been going more or less steadily down for all of the T2 chart. So sell the AUDCHF it was.

5 mins later and the stop / target lines are drawn, and the CAD is looking like it may have been a better bet so I drew some lines on a CADCHF chart too. We'll come back to that ...

The CHF has now flattened right out on the T2 so a lot of steam has gone out of the trade. The CAD has strengthened a lot so that really wasn't a good trade, while the AUD is still dribbling along and down a bit - glad I chose this one.

And .....  Nicely done for the 10 pip profit. Note the AUD is still going down on T2, while the CAD has come back up and stayed up - that one is going nowhere.

Here's the CADCHF chart - it started off promisingly but then turned straight around. If you're looking for the stop line it's under the top line of the spead, so this si the point where we get stopped out. Glad I passed on this trade !

10 pip trade #05 - win - 3-2 - win rate 60%

Saw this setting up on the CAD and the CHF. Seemed good apart from the T1, then it popped up as a P4 alert so short I went.

I probably should have checked the news first ....  but a win is a win.

 The AUDCHF didn't even twitch, news must be on the CAD ?

Aah yes.  The CAD it is ...

10 pip trade #04 - lose - 2-2 - win rate 50%

Saw what might be a good AUDCHF setup on session and on T2 ...

That most likely looks like shit and you can't see what I was looking at, so here it is again with just those 2 currencies showing :

Looking at the size of the candles compared to the target / stop lines (yes, it's 20 pips from the target to the stop) I'm not expecting this one to go out in 2 candles. Would be nice, but watch this space.

Then I realised I'd drawn the arrow the wrong way - if the AUD is weak and the CHF is strong then I want to be short this pair not long. So one quick change of arrow ...

They're converging again on the T2 but the T1 is looking reasonable, fingers crossed ...

And out ...  the CHF went all weak as well and ran out of steam to pull the pair down. The buy price is above the stop level so that's that. Next ......

10 pip trade #03 - win - 2-1, win rate 66.6 %

Another GBPJPY trade less than an hour after the last long one and this time it's short - looks a bit ugly on the session chart but T2 looks classic so I tried it and it worked - when I drew the entry line on the chart it was at the top of a big green candle with no bottom wick and i was wondering what the hell I was getting in to but WHAM it dropped and actually went out on the same candle - screenshot is on the next candle  because I wanted to show to show both price lines past the target.

Shouldn't really count this as a win because it didn't have any sort of a setup at all on the session timeframe.

10 pip trade #02 - win - 1-1, win rate 50 %

Woohoo, 50% win rate already, drives home what James meant about the law of large and small numbers, and how results from small samples are meaningless.

This was a GBPJPY trade, I stupidly didn't get a shot of the dashboard, but the JPY was heading nice and steadily south and the GBP was looking almost respectably upbeat so I paired them and the sell price just snuck over 10 pips on the second candle after I spotted it. Didn't do a lot better than 10 but it did the 10. This screenshot was taken a few candles later as I wanted one of the sell line across the target line.

10 pip trade #01 - absolute fail- 0-1, win rate 0 %

GBPJPY - Saw these on the T2 and jumped to drop a marker on the chart. Stupid thing to do really, they had done sudden breakouts rather than anything steady and sustainable.

Actually it was a complete and utter unmitigated balls up, I looked at the signal for GBPJPY then drew my lines and 'traded' it on a CADCHF chart. Bloody hell .........    fwiw the GBPJPY was forming a doji at the top of a run at the time then turned around and went down 42 pips so that was an absolute fail.