1-1 trades #17 – win - 14-3 - win rate 82%

The JPY was still shooting up so another bite at the pie seemed indicated – not with the AUD though as that had flattened. No, the one that had suddenly woken up was the EUR. In I went.


There’s that 3 big candles let’s have some profit thing again …  All the strength charts are looking nasty.



Because of the big candles the ADR stop was huge, this meant I could only take 7 micros instead of the usual 30 or so you get if you get in before the move. That’s very preferable, to get the same profit from 7 lots that you’d get from 35 it has to move 5 times as far so while I have the same risk I would have with more lots and a smaller stop, I’ve also got a small number of lots, a huge stop, and a huge target – 66 pips either side of the entry.
 

The profit taking was a bit more involved than I thought, and turned into a sideways move. The stop has trailled down now to about 20 pips – that’s a bit better than 66 !


Soon after that when the buy price was within a pip of the stop I grabbed another screenshot and started composing an analysis of the losing trade.  Session and T2 are now showing CONvergence not DIvergence, and the T3 is frankly confused about which way up it should be.



Then the Yen started going up and the EUR started going down and the T1 came back into line and we dodged the bullet by a hair’s breadth.



Then nothing happened, and enjoyed itself so much it happened again. And again. And again … 



Then we had another poke at getting stopped out but it was pale by comparison with the last try. 




Finally there was a decent down move, but because the ADR had shot up the dots were further away and stop actually stayed where it was.



Watching this damn thing was like watching paint dry, so to pass the time I practised sleeping, and when I woke up again I found this – after two and a quarter hours the trade was almost at the target and the stop was comfortably and profitably below the entry.




And … Gone.

1-1 trades #15 and #16 – win/win - 13-3 - win rate 81%

First thing to catch the eye tonight was the AUD, dropping nicely. There were a few possibles to pair it with, I was actually thinking CHF or something, but the alert that popped up was for the AUDUSD. So in I went.



10 minutes later and it’s going nicely – the stop has been trailed down to reduce the risk by about half and the AUD is still down and the USD still up on all 3 strength graphs. Also I finally learned to put the mouse on the last candle when doing screenshots so the time shows in the data window, and to capture the mouse pointer so you can see which candle the data window is talking about.



The JPY was roaring up shouting BUY ME BUY ME so I thought I’d add a yen pair to the mix. As the weakest currency the NZD was the obvious candidate for a second trade, but that had dived then started to flatten out while the AUD was still going down nice and steadily – with the Yen shooting up like petrol prices I could pair it with pretty much anything and make money but there’s no point making it hard, and going down nice and steady  sounded like a better bet than dived and starting to flatten. It was going to double my AUD exposure but the risk on the AUDUSD trade was down by well over half so the double exposure wouldn’t equal doubling the risk. Probably. The T1 was a bit of a mess but that whips around a lot so it was just a matter of setting the chart up and waiting for T1 divergence and maybe a P3 signal.
 


I think in the end it came up as a P2, and the T1 lines were all pointing the right different directions so in I went. Note how the first trade is pretty much at breakeven, so I’ve got two lots of AUD exposure but only 1 lot of AUD risk (unless the market gapped stupidly).



There was the usual reversal and things got pretty ugly on the T1 for a minute or so but from what I've seen there is ALWAYS profit taking after 3-4 big candles so I didn't panic (much)



and soon enough things started looking good again. In fact they looked so good that both trades went out on the 0835 candle. This was the 4th candle for the AUDUSD trade and the 2nd candle for the AUDJPY trade.