2013-04-04 #3 CHFJPY - lose plus an accidental win

This one did actually jump out at me from the page - T1, T2, P3 and even the chart were all yelling SELL ME !!. So I did.

Here it is without the other currencies in the way. Note how the T1 is already turning to custard.

And now, just under 4 minutes after the last shot, the T1 has flipped and it looks like I've got a perfect score for picking turning points tonight.

Then I went away looking for some new blogging software, and when I came back the trade was all over and out for a loss of $39.76 from 5104.82, which is 0.78%.

So I kept looking for blog software, and the luckiest thing happened. Sometime after that while I was clicking in and out of things I managed to inadvertently enter a long trade on this pair 3 minutes before some red Eurozone news came out - not something I would have chosen to do - but luckily there was a nice big push up and when I went back to the account next I found it had been in and out as a full winner - it would have been stopped out for a small profit if I hadn't been going for a target but as it was it made 50.78 on 5065.06 which is a tidy 1.00% exactly the way the winners are supposed to work.  I'm not going to say no to the win, but I'm going to try harder to remember to disable experts when I'm not in a trade !

2013-04-04 #2 AUDCHF - lose

I spent the next few minutes watching the T1 / T2 soup and eventually it split into 2 camps on the T1 of which the JPY and USD were looking good long, and the EUR was looking good short. Not sure if this shot really captures what I was seeing, they’d flattened out a bit from when i saw them and got all excited, but you get the idea. They’re also moving the right directions on the T2.

Here’s a shot without all the other currencies. The USD is looking a bit sad on the T1 now, it’s pretty much out of contention but I lined up an EURJPY chart and waited …

And absolutely nothing happened. A little while later the AUD and JPY were looking like possible longs, and the CHF like a good short, so I lined up the AUDCHF and the CHFJPY and waited. As luck would have it the AUDCHF triggered first so I bought that instead of shorting the CHFJPY.

A few candles later the currencies had flipped on the T1 and it was now the opposite of T2, and the trade was doing a pretty good impression of something about to fail. The CHFJPY trade was going sideways too at that point so that wouldn’t have been anything wonderful either.  The stop was trailed up reducing the risk and I got out for 38.82 out of 5143.64 which is 0.75% (a full loss would be around $51)

If I draw vertical lines on the chart at entry and exit,

and then change the chart to a CHFJPY, the entry candle is a doji (there are two together, the one with the red line is the entry candle) so the stop would have been the red dot of the first doji which is 23.4 pips, that makes the target 23.4 pips below the entry (call it the middle of the entry candle),

we see that one didn’t fly either but it would have been stopped out for a small profit rather than a loss.

2013-04-04 #1 EURJPY - lose

Cranked the platform up and straight away got this – so it wasn’t just an anomaly on the office computer.

Eventually London opened and the session strength chart started doing it’s prism thing, but T2 was still a big Yenny mess and I wasn’t going to touch it with a long pole.

Now there’s a surprise, when alerts did start to appear they all involved selling the Yen ! Who’d have thought …….

Eventually things started looking a bit more realistic, the Yen was still the obvious short currency and the Euro looked good so I lined the chart up then waiting for it to appear. When it did, as a P2 alert no less, in I went.

Almost immediately the two currencies flipped on the T1 and the pair rolled over …

… and died …  Luckily the stop had trailed up a little bit so that was only $30.37 gone – 0.58% instead of the full 1%