2013-04-04 #2 AUDCHF - lose

I spent the next few minutes watching the T1 / T2 soup and eventually it split into 2 camps on the T1 of which the JPY and USD were looking good long, and the EUR was looking good short. Not sure if this shot really captures what I was seeing, they’d flattened out a bit from when i saw them and got all excited, but you get the idea. They’re also moving the right directions on the T2.

Here’s a shot without all the other currencies. The USD is looking a bit sad on the T1 now, it’s pretty much out of contention but I lined up an EURJPY chart and waited …

And absolutely nothing happened. A little while later the AUD and JPY were looking like possible longs, and the CHF like a good short, so I lined up the AUDCHF and the CHFJPY and waited. As luck would have it the AUDCHF triggered first so I bought that instead of shorting the CHFJPY.

A few candles later the currencies had flipped on the T1 and it was now the opposite of T2, and the trade was doing a pretty good impression of something about to fail. The CHFJPY trade was going sideways too at that point so that wouldn’t have been anything wonderful either.  The stop was trailed up reducing the risk and I got out for 38.82 out of 5143.64 which is 0.75% (a full loss would be around $51)

If I draw vertical lines on the chart at entry and exit,

and then change the chart to a CHFJPY, the entry candle is a doji (there are two together, the one with the red line is the entry candle) so the stop would have been the red dot of the first doji which is 23.4 pips, that makes the target 23.4 pips below the entry (call it the middle of the entry candle),

we see that one didn’t fly either but it would have been stopped out for a small profit rather than a loss.